Give feedback on this pagePRIORITY 2 – RESPONDING TO DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
What is demographic change?
Demography is how our population is characterised in relation to gender, age, income etc. Demographic change has been identified as a significant challenge both nationally and locally mainly because people’s life expectancy is projected to increase significantly over the next twenty years.
Population projections
Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Denbighshire’s total population is projected to have an above average population growth with more females than males in the County. Denbighshire is one of only 8 local authorities expected to see more deaths than births across the period to 2031.
Without inward migration, Denbighshire would see a declining population. However due to more people expected to move into Denbighshire than leave each year the population is expected to increase. People are also expected to live longer rising from 79.1 years in 2005/06 to 83 years in 2030/31. The number of children within Denbighshire is projected to increase between 2011 and 2026 although recent trends have seen decreasing numbers of children and young people.
The number of people of working age is projected to increase until 2026 when there will be a slight decline. The number of pensioners in Denbighshire is predicted to increase continually due to people living longer and the ageing of larger groups, such as those born after the Second World War. The dependency ratio within Denbighshire is projected to increase over the projection period from around 730 per 1,000 people of working age to 820 per 1,000 people of working age.
There is increasing diversity in Denbighshire as a result of immigration from other countries, particularly Eastern Europe, and from further afield such as The Philippines.
What does this mean for Denbighshire County Council?
Population projections do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change. For example, our Local Development Plan will guide future growth and development within Denbighshire.
The Council recognises that it needs to carefully consider the population needs of Denbighshire when it is planning the type and delivery of future services and has identified ‘Responding to Demographic Change’ as one of its key priorities. Work on this priority will be the responsibility of the Demographic Change Programme Board.
The Demographic Change Programme Board
Board Objectives:-
- To challenge and scrutinise the population projections for Denbighshire to ensure they are robust
- To produce a toolkit or model to evaluate the impact for the Council of the population projections in relation to the design and delivery of future services which takes into account the need to balance budgets in the context of continuing restrictions on resources
- To work with partner organisations to establish services which meet the challenge of demographic change and make the most efficient use of resources
- To produce a series of recommendations for Council about how best to respond to the issues
- To develop and implement an Action Plan which ensures that the Council effectively meets the needs and expectations of Denbighshire’s future population